Concept:The probability that the winner of a game wins the next game is
32​, and the other wins with
31​. We need the chance that the first-game winner wins at least 3 of the next 4 games.
Explanation:Let game 1 winner be A. For games 2–5, we want A to win 3 or 4 times.
• All 4 wins: probability
(32​)4=8116​.
• Exactly 3 wins: one loss occurs in game 2, 3, 4, or 5.
• Loss in game 2:
31​⋅31​⋅32​⋅32​=814​.
• Loss in game 3:
32​⋅31​⋅31​⋅32​=814​.
• Loss in game 4:
32​⋅32​⋅31​⋅31​=814​.
• Loss in game 5:
32​⋅32​⋅32​⋅31​=818​.
Sum for exactly 3 wins:
814+4+4+8​=8120​.
• Total for at least 3 wins:
8116​+8120​=8136​=94​.
Answer:94​