Concept:The expected value is the sum of probabilities of each outcome multiplied by the corresponding gain or loss.
Explanation:Let
p be the probability of winning on a single throw:
p=62=31 (even numbers
≥4 are 4 and 6).
Let
q=1−p=32 be the probability of losing on a throw.
A win gives
+₹1000; each loss gives
−Rs. 200.
The player stops after a win or after 3 throws.
Possible outcomes and their gains:
• Win on 1st throw: probability
p, gain
+1000.
• Lose 1st, win 2nd: probability
q⋅p, gain
−200+1000=+800.
• Lose 1st & 2nd, win 3rd: probability
q2⋅p, gain
−400+1000=+600.
• Lose all three: probability
q3, gain
−600.
Expected gain
E[G] is:
E[G]=p⋅1000+(qp)⋅800+(q2p)⋅600+q3⋅(−600).Substitute
p=31,
q=32:
E[G]=31⋅1000+(32⋅31)⋅800+((32)2⋅31)⋅600+(32)3⋅(−600).Simplify each term:
31000=93000,
92⋅800=91600,
274⋅600=272400=9800,
278⋅(−600)=−274800=−91600.
Sum:
93000+1600+800−1600=93800.
Thus the expected gain is
93800 rupees.
Answer:Option B:
93800 gain.